|
|
It says here the Eagles will win the NFC title. Even though logic, statistics and common sense say otherwise. Even though they really shouldn't be playing in the title game at all. Even though they can't stop the run, have just one legitimate offensive playmaker and seemingly make every effort virtually each time out to demonstrate they are not the best team in the conference.
They won't win it easily because the Panthers have developed into a formidable opponent that is one healthy Stephen Davis away from having the NFC's premier squad. But Davis is hobbled by a sore leg, and even if he does play Sunday at Lincoln Financial Field, he certainly won't be nearly as effective or as durable as Carolina would want or must have.
The Eagles will benefit from Davis' plight. But there is something about this team that shouldn't be diminished by Carolina's injury situation. Philadelphia has concocted one of the most amazing and fascinating winning formulas seen in this league -- perhaps ever. They live constantly on the edge, get gashed for chunks of yards and seem incapable of besting talented opponents, yet use timely turnovers, the magic of Donovan McNabb and the experience gained through the agony of playoff unhappiness past to figure out a way to survive. Tickets
The problem for Carolina is this: How do you overcome such an improbable set
of ingredients? Look at what happened to the Packers last Sunday. They ran for
210 yards, had eight sacks, held the Eagles to 24 percent on third downs while
converting 53 percent of their own, limited Philadelphia's running backs to
57 yards and were on the verge of turning the home crowd into one angry bunch
after threatening to take a 21-7 first-half lead.
Yet they lost. They lost because their imposing running game couldn't gain the half-yard that separated them from the Eagles' end zone and that 14-point advantage. They lost because McNabb, so athletically gifted and so uniquely determined, continues to carry a team -- and its fans -- on his strong shoulders, taking advantage of the Packers' heavy use of man coverage by scrambling for a playoff-record 107 yards, overcoming a 1-for-7 passing start by completing 20 of his last 32 attempts and, in the most bizarre play of all, completing a fourth-and-26 desperation fling to receiver Freddie Mitchell that netted 28 yards, a throw that eventually led to a regulation-tying field goal by David Akers. And the Packers lost because Brett Favre, whose dramatic play the last few weeks had so captured the football world, inexplicably tossed up a gawd-awful pass against an overtime blitz that was intercepted, setting up Akers' 31-yard field goal and sending the Eagles to their third st raight conference championship game, 20-17.
"We are playing with a sense of urgency," says McNabb, who understands that teams receive just so many chances to get to Super Bowls and the Eagles have done a terrible job of capitalizing on their opportunities. So here's another one; they won't botch it this time. It is their time, their place. They have the best record of any NFL team since 2000, and they already have overcome a horrid 2-3 start and, for this game, the loss of their No. 1 running back (Brian Westbrook) and their best defensive player (linebacker Carlos Emmons). Do we sense some unusual karma here?
Here's how the Eagles will win. And this makes no sense, either. They will advance to the Super Bowl because they will make more explosive plays than Carolina, even though they lack the talent at running back and receiver -- none of theirs ranks among the league's top 25 statistically -- to prevail on those 20 yards-plus plays. But it is their only hope.
They can't run the ball better than the Panthers, who thrashed a bewildered Rams defense for 216 yards in Carolina's wild and crazy 29-23, double-overtime win Saturday. They can't play defense better than the Panthers, who shut down St. Louis during three first-half red zone forays that resulted in three field goals and transformed the game into a Carolina-style, conservative, go-for-three-points affair. But they do have McNabb, they do have home-field advantage no matter how little that is worth and they do have the experience of knowing what it's like in these conference championship games, a feeling the young Panthers never have felt. And McNabb is capable of recording enough explosive plays to drag the Eagles to Houston.
This will certainly surprise you: These two conservative offenses were on the same level as the Colts -- the Colts! -- in registering explosive plays this season. The Panthers had 46, seventh highest in the league and one more than Indianapolis and the Eagles. And the Panthers have continued their yardage greediness in the postseason. In beating both the Cowboys and Rams, they've added 13 more big plays, including seven against St. Louis, climaxed by a 69-yard stunner from quarterback Jake Delhomme to receiver Steve Smith to end the game. Philadelphia added five against the Packers, including a 41-yard run by McNabb.
It is on these explosive plays that the Eagles' receivers, basically a nameless bunch without a Pro Bowl appearance among them, continue to step up and perform beyond their ability level. Todd Pinkston, in particular, has emerged at year's end; over the last three regular-season games, he gained 273 of his 575 receiving yards. And Mitchell has become a third-down specialist, running from the slot to pick up essential first downs.
"You throw to score, then run to win," says ESPN analyst Ron Jaworski. "Both the Panthers and Eagles aren't going to toss it around, but they understand the need to go for big plays. That's where Carolina has really developed as the season has gone on. When Davis got hurt, Jake had to assume more of the load, and they started to look downfield more and have more confidence in him."
With Davis, Carolina would be set up perfectly to overmatch the Eagles. Philadelphia, the league's 22nd-ranked run defense, would be forced to play an extra defender near the line, allowing the nicely maturing Delhomme to exploit one-on-one matchups in the secondary, mostly with Smith, a nifty athlete who is on the verge of becoming one of the league's better receivers. But without Davis, the Panthers will fall back on backup DeShaun Foster, whose running style is better suited for artificial turf than real grass. Coach John Fox will not abandon the run -- it is too essential to his approach to winning games -- but the Eagles now have a better chance of at least limiting Carolina's rushing damage.
That puts pressure on Delhomme, the former NFL backup and World League reserve who signed as a free agent in the offseason. He has quietly emerged as a pretty decent player who is exceptional under pressure, a major reason the Panthers have won eight games by three points or fewer -- all on the final possession. Delhomme now is 23 of 30 for 301 yards in those last series. And in these playoffs, he has been excellent -- just one interception while Carolina has scored 58 points and gained 865 yards, huge totals for this field goal-reliant bunch.
"No one is giving Jake enough credit," says FOX analyst Daryl Johnston. "They've expanded their offensive package and are going downfield more, and Jake has shown he can deal with it. They are never going to be a fling-it-around team, but you can't sit on them anymore, either. They surprised Dallas by going vertical more than they expected, and I think you can count on them to continue it."
But as efficient as Delhomme has been, he will be venturing into the strength of what once was a far more formidable Philadelphia defense. The secondary, which might get cornerback Troy Vincent (hip flexor) back Sunday, has 13 interceptions among the team's 26 takeaways. The Eagles forced just one Packers mistake -- the Favre interception -- but it proved huge. Carolina has had problems all season scoring touchdowns in the red zone, and now it must overcome a Philadelphia defense that ranks 10th in red zone defense.
Carolina already has attempted 10 field goals in the playoffs, with John Kasay converting eight. He knows how important he will be in this championship game. When the two teams met in late November, Kasay missed three field-goal attempts and an extra point, the worst performance of his career. And it was the major reason the Eagles won, 25-16, in Ericsson Stadium. It's essential the Panthers score touchdowns, not field goals in this game, adding even more importance to their ability to pull off explosive plays.
"But this is going to be difficult for the Eagles, too," says Jaworski. "Losing Westbrook is significant. He was the guy mainly responsible over the last 10 weeks for their increased explosive plays. He could match up as a receiver against linebackers and safeties and win those battles. I believe Andy (Reid) will wind up throwing 40-plus times in this game (Reid's play calls allowed McNabb to have 39 attempts against the Packers), and he'll use a lot of multiple receivers to spread the field and exploit the Panthers' secondary, which isn't their strength."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
You have to wonder if the Panthers will have problems comprehending their presence in this game. After all, it has happened so fast. Just two years ago, they were 1-15 and wallowing under coach George Seifert. Now, under the prodding Fox, who is wedded to this unbendable approach of defense, run it and win close games, they are in the NFC championship game for the second time in franchise history. And they know it is amazing they have advanced this far, considering what happened against the Rams.
They blew an 11-point lead late in the fourth quarter and were fortunate St. Louis didn't win in regulation. With 37 seconds left, Rams coach Mike Martz, normally Mr. Aggressive, played for a tying field goal instead of taking at least one shot in the end zone from the Carolina 15. His players were amazed and the home crowd was angered, but Martz stood by his decision. "The whole point is to keep yourself in position to continue to play," he said. In overtime, the Rams missed a 53-yard field-goal attempt and Marc Bulger was intercepted at the Carolina 38, allowing Delhomme the opportunity to finish off the game, finally, with his pass to Smith on a third-and-14 play.
So a team that beat just one playoff team (the Colts) in the regular season finds itself one victory from the Super Bowl. "I think you see John's personality come through this team," says Martz. "His attention to detail, his enthusiasm, his passion -- it looks like it is shared by his players. He understands the game management aspect and he's asserted his philosophy on his team and it has bought into it. Now he's developed Jake to where he is doing a tremendous job of getting the ball to their playmakers."
Still, Fox's pride is his defense. The Panthers have the best front four in the NFL, and his aim every game is to blitz infrequently, hoping the line's pressure will allow him to blanket the secondary with defenders. So Reid has to be concerned, seeing his team surrender eight sacks to the Packers. The last thing he needs is for McNabb to be pushed around; it's incumbent upon his offensive linemen to give their quarterback some working room.
The Eagles will have to work for their scores. The Panthers gave up just 29 touchdowns all season (six others came on special teams), and they are particularly quick and aggressive. The Rams are an exceptionally fast team in their home dome, but Carolina matched their speed. The Panthers won't let the Eagles run outside; whatever rushing yards Philadelphia gains will have to come on straight-ahead power runs. But it is a defense vulnerable to a Reid specialty, the screen pass, which could become pivotal in this game.
"It's going to be a terrific, old-fashioned, blood and guts football game," says new Falcons coach Jim Mora Jr., the former 49ers defensive coordinator. "I can't wait to see it. You are going to see two teams really going after it."
And you're going to see the Eagles win. Somehow, some way.