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As part of the Colts' preparation for their divisional playoff game against the Chiefs, Tony Dungy called his team together and stirred his men with a thoughtful speech about perception and reality. If the well is dry for him this week, Dungy could squeeze more juice out of the same theme as the Colts prepare to meet the Patriots for the AFC championship.
Perception: Peyton Manning can't win the big one.
Reality: He has won every big game he has played this season, beating the Titans twice during the regular season and the Bucs on a Monday night. Manning could play another 50 years and not be under more pressure than he was in the Colts' 41-10 wild-card victory over the Broncos. And he might never face a more raucous crowd than he did Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium, where he was able to make his checks and audibles without a blip in the Colts' 38-31 victory over the Chiefs. He is perfectly capable of winning another big one at Gillette Stadium.
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Perception: Edgerrin James isn't the runner he was before blowing out his knee
in 2001. Tickets
Reality: James wasn't the same runner he was before blowing out his knee -- until five weeks ago. Since then, James has averaged 5.2 yards per carry. Before that, he had averaged 3.6. "Everybody was down on Edge, saying he lost it and the knee injury ruined him," Chiefs defensive end Eric Hicks said. "He ran his butt off today. He looked like the Edgerrin of old."
Perception: The Colts will wilt like summer wildflowers in the harsh elements of the Northeast.
Reality: There is no question their offense will be affected if the game is played in extreme cold or snow. But the Colts proved Sunday they are industrious enough to overcome adverse conditions. "They're like a juggernaut," Hicks said. "The way (Manning) managed the game at the line of scrimmage in this crowd noise, obviously they're well-versed, and nothing rattles them. They have to be the odds-on favorite to win the Super Bowl now. This is probably the most hostile environment you can play in in the NFL, and he managed it and beat us pretty bad."
Perception: Because the Patriots beat the Colts already this season in Indianapolis, they will have a considerable advantage at home.
Reality: The Colts proved they could exploit the Patriots' pass defense with their quickness at receiver. They just have to emphasize that part of their attack more. Marvin Harrison will pose some of the same matchup problems that Titans receiver Derrick Mason did in the Patriots' 17-14 victory over Tennessee on Saturday. There isn't a corner in the league who can stay with Harrison man-to-man. If the Patriots play a lot of zone, the Colts should be able to take advantage of matchups with any of their linebackers and safety Rodney Harrison.
Patriots coach Bill Belichick has said this is the best group of cover men he's ever had, but Titans quarterback Steve McNair and Mason worked over New England cornerback Tyrone Poole and some of the other defensive backs pretty good. Manning, who shared the league's MVP award with McNair but deserved it outright, should be able to do the same.
"The thing about him is he doesn't throw an inaccurate ball," Chiefs coach Dick Vermeil says. "Every time a receiver has to make a catch, it's right there in any type of throw. He's been doing that for a long time, and he's doing it better now than he's ever done it."
"P-money" is what James calls his quarterback because Manning puts everything on the money. Manning's passer rating through two playoff games is a near-perfect 156.9.
"Manning doesn't seem to be pressed to make every play," says Merrill Hoge, co-host of ESPN's EA Sports NFL Matchup. "He's been patient. He's thrown the ball away a lot this year. He's taken sacks he wouldn't take in previous years. And I see a guy who's playing with a certain edge and certain fire."
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Manning will get his yards on the Patriots. The bigger issue is if James will get his against a defense that ranked fourth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (89.6).
"The Patriots do a very nice job of attacking gaps and shutting down running lanes," Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio says. "When they decide they want to stop the run, they're pretty solid at getting it done. I don't think it's impossible, but more than likely it will be some very tough sledding for the Colts."
Chiefs defensive tackle Ryan Sims offers a different take. "They will be able to run the ball because they have such a great passer," Sims says. "It's not really about Edgerrin's running ability. It's about the way they can spread the ball around. Edgerrin is a great football player, too, but anybody can play running back for those guys when you have a quarterback that smart, that accurate."
James and Manning complemented each other Sunday just the way Colts offensive coordinator Tom Moore draws it up. Play-action to James sucked up the Kansas City linebackers and safeties to help receivers get open, as it did on Manning's 29-yard touchdown pass to Brandon Stokley on the Colts' first possession. And Manning's accuracy prevented the Chiefs' defensive backs from crowding the box, opening up lanes for James.
Like James, Patriots running back Antowain Smith has come on strong late in the season, averaging 5.4 yards per carry over his last three games. Particularly impressive was his 4.3 average Saturday against Tennessee, which had the NFL's top-ranked running defense (80.9 per game). Smith can be counted on for a lot of tough yards against an undersized Colts defense that allowed Priest Holmes to rush for 176 yards on 24 carries. If the Patriots are crowned AFC kings, the reason could be the Colts couldn't stop them from running.
Smith is the Patriots' bad-weather back, which meant he was the man Saturday with a game-time temperature of 4 degrees and a wind chill of minus-10.
"I saw one guy with no shirt on," Patriots cornerback Ty Law said of a fan. "It was brave, and we should suit him up."
The hand warmers and cups of Joe they passed out at Gillette Stadium provided temporary warmth to some of the more than 68,000 whackos -- I use the term with reverence -- who were not deterred by the cold. But quarterback Tom Brady provided more enduring warmth by putting the Patriots in their second AFC title game in three seasons.
In the coldest game in Patriots history, Brady wore a glove on his left hand, but not on his throwing hand. Certainly, these were not ideal passing conditions. Brady said the football felt like a rock. "That ball is hard, the leather is cold, the laces are hard," he said.
He threw the ball fairly well, completing 21 of 41 passes for 201 yards with marks on his cheeks that looked more like eyebrow pencil than eye black. His performance wasn't about passes and showmanship as much as it was the little things.
He picked up a Titans blitz on third-and-6 and went deep to Bethel Johnson on the Patriots' first drive when he noticed Johnson was being covered by Titans safety Lance Schulters, a mismatch. The 41-yard touchdown pass meant the Patriots never trailed. Later, after a quick pass to Johnson and Johnson's horizontal run through the backfield, Brady threw a block on Schulters that sprang Johnson for a 14-yard gain. Brady, who now has four playoff victories and no playoff losses, even ran for two first downs.
"The guy never gets rattled," says Patriots safety Rodney Harrison, who played nine seasons for San Diego. "When we came up here and we had the Patriots against the wall in the old stadium, he didn't get rattled, and he was a young guy then. Just so cool and calm. He has a silent confidence that is very, very much up there."
The same could be said of Patriots kicker Adam Vinatieri, who kicked the game-winning field goal, a 46-yarder, with 4:06 remaining. "That," Patriots coach Bill Belichick says, "is what he is here for." If the AFC championship game comes down to a kick, the Patriots will be confident. Vinatieri is the player whose 48-yard field goal in Super Bowl 36 lifted the Patriots over the Rams, 20-17. He has had 16 game-winning kicks in his career, including three in the playoffs.
But the Colts should feel even more confident. Their kicker, Mike Vanderjagt, has not missed in 42 straight attempts. His career field-goal percentage of .879 is the best in NFL history. "If we're kicking it, I have no doubt we're going to make it," Colts center Jeff Saturday says.
Vinatieri has not been the flawless kicker this season he is reputed to be. He has missed nine of 19 attempts from 30 yards or longer, including a 44-yard attempt against Tennessee. His track record suggests Vinatieri wouldn't miss a kick with the game on the line, but it's possible his inaccuracy could cost the Patriots a chance to be in the game at the end.