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In reviewing the Divisional playoffs, it's a classic case of "Oh, what could have been ..." But the fact is woulda, coulda, shoulda is what the Packers, Chiefs, Titans and Rams are taking solace in as they prepare for the offseason:
Philadelphia 20, Green Bay 17 (OT)
Playing with arguably the best collection of offensive linemen in the playoffs, if not the NFL, Packers head coach Mike Sherman inexplicably lost his nerve on fourth-and-1 from the Philly 41 with 2:30 left in the fourth quarter. And actually, it was less than a yard; two feet, tops.
Instead of continuing to pound the ball at the Eagles' D-line, Sherman opted to take the ball out of the hands of the NFL's three-time MVP Brett Favre or the NFC's leading rusher Ahman Green. Instead, Josh Bidwell punted the ball into the end zone, setting Philly up at first-and-victory to go at its 20-yard line. Tickets
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But Green Bay was still leading 17-14 at the time, you say. Yep -- and it was
a lost cause for the Packers the moment Sherman decided to have Favre bark signals
in a schoolyard attempt to draw the Eagles offside, then take the delay of game
penalty and punt after the shenanigans did not work.
Faced with driving merely into field-goal range against a defense that ranked a middle-of-the-Pack 17th in the NFL (23rd against the pass), Philadelphia overcame a fourth-and-26 -- that's 78 feet of Lincoln Financial Field turf -- en route to a game-tying, overtime-forcing field goal.
"You would have thought fourth-down-and-26 was pretty good odds," Packers defensive backs coach Bob Slowik said. You would have thought fourth-and-1 was better odds, coach. After all, Favre had thrown for 289 yards and Green only rushed for 348 yards in two games against the Eagles this season.
Credit Donovan McNabb and the oft-maligned Freddie Mitchell for making the play on fourth-and-26; it's the stuff of legend. But that's not what won the game; Sherman's decision not to go for the jugular lost the game.
Look for a new MasterCard commercial, with Favre admitting, "I believe I'd gone for it."
Indianapolis 38, Kansas City 31
In what may be the culmination of a coronation six years in the making, Peyton Manning's eye-popping postseason numbers -- now 44 of 56 passing for 681 yards with eight TDs and zero picks for a 156.9 passer rating -- are the key to Indianapolis' success so far. Sunday at K.C., Manning was again stellar, completing 22 of 30 attempts for 304 yards and three touchdowns as the Colts advanced to the AFC Championship Game for the first time since the 1995 season.
But here is a stunning fact: Manning has thrown back-to-back incompletions once in the playoffs. And his TD passes have covered an average of 30.5 yards. And lost in all the hoopla surrounding Manning is Edgerrin James' workhorse efforts this postseason: 43 carries for 203 yards -- a 4.7 yards per carry average -- and two TDs.
Give credit to Indy's O-line, which has allowed only one sack, on a meaningless first-and-10 at the end of the first half Sunday. In the regular season, Manning was dumped only 18 times in 566 attempts (once every 31 drop-backs).
Entering the AFC title game at New England, the Colts' front five of Jeff Saturday, Rick DeMulling, Tupe Peko, Tarik Glenn and Ryan Diem will have to hold their own against a scheme -- one probably unseen by human eyes, or Peyton Manning's -- devised by Patriots head coach Bill Belichick and defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel which will feature more looks than Cher.
New England 17, Tennessee 14
The Patriots' stats speak for themselves: 18-3 in their past 21 home games. Have won their past 23 games when leading at halftime. Outscored opponents 125-36 in their past six games at Gillette Stadium. QB Tom Brady is 26-4 after Nov. 1, including the postseason; is 34-12 as a starter; and has never lost a playoff game (4-0).
Nonetheless, the question must be raised: Does Steve McNair diminish the Titans' chances for winning when he continues to limp around defenders? Granted, McNair -- even at 80 percent -- is better than a lot of the other NFL QBs, but against a defense like New England's, 80 percent just doesn't cut it.
Then again, if the Titans' Drew Bennett makes that catch on fourth-and-12 from the Patriots' 42. ... As it is, Tennessee returns to the drawing board with the knowledge RB Chris Brown and WR Tyrone Calico will be viable offensive weapons next season, but casting an eye on improving its defense in both free agency and the draft.
Also, there aren't enough adjectives to describe how clutch Patriots kicker Adam Vinatieri is with the game on the line. His 46-yard field goal with 4:11 to play Saturday night was the 16th game-winning kick of his career. "It was like kicking a rock," Vinatieri said. "But the nice thing about it was you really couldn't feel your feet anyway, so it didn't hurt too much."
What else would you expect from a South Dakota State grad?
Carolina 29, St. Louis 23 (OT)
Simply put, Mike Martz out-smarted himself.
It was hard enough for Rams fans to endure Lovie Smith's off-kilter defense through most of Saturday's game, but when "Mad Mike" opted for a prevent offense, that was the final straw. A prevent offense mirrors a prevent defense: It prevents a team from winning -- just as it did St. Louis.
Fourth Quarter 1:24 -- First-and-10 from the Carolina 25: Marc Bulger passes to Marshall Faulk for 6 yards. 0:42 -- Second-and-4 from the Carolina 19: Faulk runs off right end for 4 yards. 0:03 -- First-and-10 from the Carolina 15: Jeff Wilkins' 33-yard field goal is good.
The self-proclaimed Greatest Show on Turf ran two offensive plays in 81 seconds. That is going to leave a bad taste in the mouths of Bulger, Faulk, Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce.
"Could we have popped it in there for a touchdown? Yeah, maybe so," Martz said in his defense. Then he reeled off things that might have happened had St. Louis pressed the issue -- a sack, perhaps a pick (Bulger had already thrown two second-half INTs, on consecutive passes no less) -- instead of going for Wilkins' kick, something Martz called "a sure thing."
Remember when scoring touchdowns was a "sure thing" for the Rams? In 2001, Kurt Warner was 375-for-546 with 36 touchdown passes and 22 interceptions. In the two seasons since, mostly with Bulger under center, the Rams are a combined 785-for-1,235 with 47 TDs and 50 INTs.
If injury-plagued Warner is a question and turnover-prone Bulger isn't the answer, St. Louis has a problem.