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While taking in last weekend's four divisional playoff nailbiters, I realized how crucial coaching is for a team to emerge from parity to prosperity. One bad play call, one wrong fourth-down decision, one questionable judgment -- that's all it takes to make the difference between two evenly matched teams in the NFL.
So it's no coincidence that the Panthers, Eagles, Colts and Patriots all had great coaching throughout the regular season and have earned berths in the conference championship games.
In terms of scheming, great coaching is about knowing your personnel strengths and adjusting to exploit an opponent's weaknesses. In terms of results, it shows in winning the close ones, winning over adversity, winning on the road and winning against winning teams. Tickets
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Carolina has gone 10-3 in games decided by six points or less, including 4-1
in overtime. Philadelphia started the season 0-2 and rallied from 14-0 down
to eliminate the Packers last week. Indianapolis has gone 8-1 on the road. New
England is 8-0 against teams that finished above .500.
There are no flukes in the final four, and there should be two more instant classics in paring the field down to a pair for Houston.
AFC GAME OF THE WEEK
Indianapolis at New England. Forget X's and O's -- to break down one side of
the AFC championship game we need Y's, Z's, P's, Q's and the other 20 letters.
Peyton Manning is the planet's smartest quarterback. Bill Belichick (with a
big assist from Romeo Crennel) is the planet's smartest defensive schemer. This
is the NFL equivalent of Rock Paper Scissors -- the ultimate outguessing game.
When Belichick shows paper with a complex coverage or blitzing scheme, it will be up to Manning to show scissors with an audible and cut it apart. Personnel will constantly be shuffled, and their respective brains will constantly be racked.
Manning has the advantage of making the last line change. He will have more time to survey the field to call the appropriate play than the Patriots will have to make substitutions, so Belichick can't tip his hand too early with where his safeties and linebackers are headed.
This brings me to another household game that has become a national sensation: poker. Manning would be the guy always moving his face around, looking up from and down to his cards, to see if he has an ace somewhere. Sometimes, Belichick will go all in and bring the full house, and sometimes he will show nothing.
What's unlike roshambo or no-limit Texas hold 'em, however, is that Manning isn't flying solitaire in his competitive environment. He gets great protection from his offensive line and throws to a talented group of pass-catchers.
Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne both can get separation quickly and burn corners one-on-one deep. Then there's diminutive dasher Brandon Stokley and athletic tight end Marcus Pollard shooting through the open field. Edgerrin James, who in addition to being a great dumpoff option, sets up more Manning fun via play-action with his strong running.
Manning's hot hand no longer will keep showing royal flush as it has thus far in the playoffs, but he'll fire off enough straights to keep New England's defense off-balance. Unfortunately, Indianapolis' defense will lead to the Colts' folding.
Tom Brady shredded the Colts' zone early in the teams' Week 13 matchup before throwing two interceptions that helped Manning's team mount a comeback from a 24-10 halftime deficit. That 38-34 hanger-on was in Indy. Brady doesn't throw picks in Foxboro, however, and since then, Antowain Smith has become more of a factor in the power running game.
The Colts' speed-based unit is vulnerable up the middle, so that's where Smith will get carries and Brady will work to his receivers underneath. The key for the Pats will be making sure that end Dwight Freeney and linebacker Marcus Washington stay away from the ball.
Considering how smart Belichick and Crennel are, they will play to a draw with brilliant Colts offensive coordinator Tom Moore and split the ante. Moore's counterpart, Charlie Weis, will win this game with the cards to trump Tony Dungy and Ron Meeks' defense.
The Chiefs' offense needed to be perfect to stay with the Colts last week. The Patriots can get by with "very good," as their defense is much better and neither Weis nor Brady will let them down. Neither will Adam Vinatieri. Patriots 24, Colts 21 (overtime?)
NFC GAME OF THE WEEK
Carolina at Philadelphia. One play stood out in the Eagles' 20-17 overtime win
over Green Bay last week -- the game-tying TD strike from Donovan McNabb to
Todd Pinkston. The pass itself was elementary, a bullet to the near right corner
of the end zone. What McNabb did before the pass was magic, eluding would-be
sacker Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila and buying an eternity to deliver the ball.
The Panthers have speed-rushing ends even more daunting than KGB in Mike Rucker and Julius Peppers, but they will need to act more CIA if they are to contain McNabb's mad scrambling by calling upon the good kind of spies. Once McNabb gets out and fires on the move, it usually results in a big pass. Once McNabb decides to tuck the ball and head downfield against a drop zone, it usually results in a big run.
On top of that, Andy Reid and Brad Childress' West Coast game plan means McNabb doesn't need to hold the ball that long to find someone open on short-to-intermediate routes, whether it's a wide receiver, back or tight end. That's the challenge Carolina faces -- something it couldn't handle when the teams met in Week 13.
That said, the Panthers would have won that game in Charlotte if John Kasay had not missed chances for 10 points -- instead they lost by nine, 25-16. With Kasay back on track, this will be another thrilling playoff game.
One big running star from the Week 13 game, the Eagles' Brian Westbrook, is out, and another, the Panthers Stephen Davis, also is likely to miss the rematch. Although Duce Staley and DeShaun Foster both should play well in their expanded roles, the NFC championship game will come down to Jake Delhomme vs. McNabb.
Considering the Eagles' major struggles vs. the run and their propensity to blitz, Delhomme will see plenty of favorable coverage this week. Strikes to Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad will keep Carolina in the game, but Delhomme also will be forced into some mistakes.
McNabb will fare better in neutralizing the Panthers' defensive strengths and exploiting their weaknesses. After two years of playoff disappointment, the Eagles finally have the right matchup off which they can take the elusive next step. The Panthers again will make an opponent nervous, but this time they will fall a little short -- by David Akers' left foot, to be exact. Eagles 24, Panthers 21 (overtime?).